THE **Quina de Sao Joao** betting is open until the 25th of June, with an estimated prize of **BRL 200 million**. As it does not accumulate, contest number 5881 attracts many players with an eye on the fortune that can yield R$ 1.3 million in savings and R$ 1.6 million net in an application linked to the CDI (Interbank Deposit Certificate). The draw will take place at the traditional Festa de São João in Campina Grande (PB).

The simple bet, with five numbers, costs R$ 2 and can be made at any lottery house or on the internet – website or application of Loterias Caixa. The deadline ends at 19:00 on the 25th.

**probabilities**

In an interview with **State of Mines**the electrical engineer and doctor of mathematics **Gilcione Nonato Costa**a professor at the Federal University of Minas Gerais, calculated the probabilities of winning the top prize at Quina de São João and Mega da Virada – which raffled BRL 378 million on December 31, 2021.

**‘Star in the sky’**

“Now the odds of you hitting the corner is 1 in 24 million. So these two people are 2,400 times more likely to pick the same star in the sky than you are to hit the corner with a single bet.”

According to Gilcione, “if we repeat these two experiments regularly, the star chosen at random by two different people will be the same 2,400 times for every corner hit”.

**Odds of winning**

What is better for the bettor: scoring more numbers on the same ticket or making different combinations on different cards? According to Gilcione, to get the five numbers right, the odds are the same. What changes, according to him, is the format: a bet of ten numbers (R$ 504.00) is equivalent to 252 (R$ 2 each) of five numbers.

For four of a kind (4 numbers), a suit (3 numbers) or a deuce (2 numbers), opting for multiple bets gives you a higher chance of winning. However, in the single card, the prize would be higher.

**sequential numbers**

Also according to Gilcione Nonato, the chance of winning is the same for bets of numbers in sequence (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) or random tens (eg: 8, 16, 25, 40, 50).

“But the following happens: it is natural that there are more or less drawn numbers at a certain moment. In the long run, the numbers that are drawn less will necessarily be drawn so that this discrepancy is minimized. So, in the long run, it would be recommended to bet on the least drawn numbers.”

**‘Common bet’**

Regarding the numbers chosen, the professor of the exact sciences courses at UFMG commented on a curiosity: people tend to think that sequential bets are less likely, but, in fact, this is the most common guess.

“When this sequence is drawn, the prize will be negligible, as it will be divided between several bets”, he added.

**betting tips**

In the mathematician’s understanding, one of the ways to increase the probability of winning lotteries is to concentrate all bets on a single game with a jackpot (ex: Mega-Sena da Virada, Quina de São João, Lotofácil da Independência), instead of make several simple games in the year.

“For example, I set aside R$400 from my budget that I would spend throughout the year on single bets. The chances would be greater if I took that R$400 and bet just once,” said Gilcione.

“Because I maximize my chance of winning with a bigger prize. My gain-benefit ratio is higher,” he added.

**money in the trash**

“The practical effect of playing the lottery is to throw the money in the trash. For the vast majority of people, there is no difference, you always lose”, observed Gilcione Nonato.

***Intern under the supervision of sub-editor Rafael Arruda**