Global stocks soar as investors assess economic threats; IPCA-15 and more market issues today

New York index futures and European stock markets operate higher, in the same direction as the closing of Asian markets on the morning of this Friday (24), with investors assessing inflation and fears of an economic recession.

Over the past week, central banks have made aggressive moves to contain inflation, and investors are now hopeful that the rise in consumer prices will be brought under control as commodity prices retreated sharply.

However, this aggressive path of policy tightening has fueled fears of a recession, which US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Wednesday was a “possibility” while reiterating that the central bank is “strongly committed” to reducing inflation.

In this regard, economic data will be an important focus today (24) as markets try to determine whether the US economy is entering a recession. New home sales data will be released at 11:00 am ET and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment report for June will also be released at 11:00 am.

Attention will be redoubled on the final reading of the University of Michigan sentiment index, highlighting 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations; the acceleration of these expectations was pointed out by Powell as a determining factor for raising the US basic interest rate at a greater pace of 0.75 percentage point.

In Brazil, the IPCA-15 June (9:00 am), the day after the Central Bank confirmed the most hawkish message, raising the neutral interest rate to 4% and admitting a higher Selic rate, in addition to the intention to extend the monetary tightening for more time.

Check out more highlights:

1. World Scholarships

United States

US futures rose on Friday morning, as Wall Street looked for a rare positive week in what has been a difficult first half.

The rally comes as the stock market appears to have found some stability this week, at least in the short term. After a rally yesterday (23), the S&P 500 is up 3.3% on the week, while the Nasdaq is up 4% and the Dow is up 2.6%.

The day before, Wall Street’s major indexes posted solid gains, driven by strong performance in defensive and technology stocks, which offset declines in economically sensitive groups amid fears of a US recession.

See the performance of futures markets:

  • Dow Jones Futures (USA), +0.57%
  • S&P 500 Futures (US), +0.68%
  • Nasdaq Future (US), +0.87%

Asia

Asian markets closed with gains on Friday (24), driven by technology shares in the Hong Kong market.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.09% to close at 21,719, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 4.05%.

On the economic radar, core consumer prices in Japan rose 2.1% in May from a year earlier, in line with estimates, according to Reuters. This is above the Bank of Japan’s target of 2% inflation. However, consumer prices rose just 0.8% if fresh food and energy were removed, Reuters said.

  • Shanghai SE (China), +0.89%
  • Nikkei (Japan), +1.23%
  • Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +2.09%
  • Kospi (South Korea), +2.26%

Europe

European markets operate higher to end a volatile week as global investors weigh inflation and fears of an economic downturn.

UK retail sales fell 0.5% monthly in May, slightly less than the -0.7% economists projected in a Reuters poll, while April’s monthly sales increase was revised down from 1 .4% to 0.4%.

UK consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since records began, new data from research firm GfK revealed on Friday, as the country grapples with 40-year high inflation, slowing growth and a crisis. spiraling cost of living for families.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered a double whammy overnight when his ruling Conservative Party lost two key elections to the main opposition Labor Party and the Liberal Democrats.

  • FTSE 100 (UK), +0.81%
  • DAX (Germany), +0.51%
  • CAC 40 (France), +1.46%
  • FTSE MIB (Italy), +0.63%

commodities

Oil prices rose on Friday (24), as the market balanced fears of slower demand due to the slowdown in US economic activity with uncertainty over supply.

  • WTI Oil, +0.79%, at $105.14 a barrel
  • Brent Oil, up 0.75% at $110.88 a barrel
  • Iron ore traded on the Dalian Exchange rose 0.96% to 736 yuan, equivalent to US$110.41

Bitcoin

  • Bitcoin, +2.31% at $21,048 (from 24 hours ago)

2. Schedule

The IPCA-15, considered a preview of official inflation, for June will be released this Friday (24). Itaú anticipates a monthly increase of 0.74%, taking the annual rate to 12.10% (from 12.20% in May). Bradesco expects a monthly increase of 0.73%, with cores still under pressure.

Brazil

8:00 am: Consumer survey released by FGV

9 am: IPCA-June 15th; Refinitiv consensus points to an increase of 0.62% compared to May and 11.98% on an annual basis

USA

11am: Sale of new houses

11am: Research Michigan business conditions

11 am: June consumer confidence

3pm: Baker Hughes rig count

3. Fuels and Petrobras are on the radar

President Jair Bolsonaro yesterday sanctioned the 17% ceiling for ICMS on fuels, electricity, telecommunications and public transport, approved last week by Congress, but vetoed sections included by the Senate that would benefit states in compensating for the loss of revenue from the tribute.

The project is part of the offensive to reduce fuel prices, but has faced resistance from governors, who predict a fiscal crisis in 2023 with the reduction of ICMS rates. The Senate, where the heads of state executives have more bargaining power, responded to some requests brought by the finance secretaries, now vetoed by the president.

Revision of the State-Owned Companies Law

The Bolsonaro government has recalibrated its sights on the management of the state-owned company and now points to other administrative positions and processes, in an attempt to control fuel prices. Among the targets of the provisional measure being drafted to change the State-Owned Companies Law, there is a key position: that of director of governance.

O Estadão found out that one of the main objectives of the MP is to change Petrobras’ bylaws, which governs the company; and to put their hands on the Governance and Compliance Department, an area created in 2014, when the Lava Jato Operation denouncements exploded.

Bolsonaro shows confidence that he will be able to change the composition of Petrobras’ board

“We are on our way to resolving the Petrobras thing,” he said in a live broadcast on social networks, without offering details about the future of the state-owned company.

Bolsonaro nominated Caio Paes de Andrade, secretary of the Ministry of Economy, to assume the presidency of Petrobras, but the appointment is on hold. The Planalto Palace and the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), are negotiating behind the scenes the inauguration of Paes de Andrade for as soon as possible.

goodness pack

Measures that include the expansion of Auxílio Brasil resources, the gas voucher and the inclusion of a voucher for truck drivers, remain on the market’s radar.

Government leader in the Senate, Carlos Portinho (PL-RJ), confirmed that there was a discussion about including the increase in Auxílio Brasil, from R$ 400 to R$ 600, until the end of the year, in the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) of the fuels.

In the case of the gas voucher, currently at R$ 53, the value would also be increased, as well as the number of people who use the benefit. The PEC would also include the creation of a voucher for truck drivers to purchase diesel, worth up to R$1,000. With the voucher at that amount, the fuel PEC could cost up to BRL 58.2 billion, according to a calculation by the manager Ryo Asset.

4. Covid

Last Thursday (23), Brazil recorded 346 deaths and 69,231 cases of covid-19 in 24 hours, according to information from the consortium of press vehicles, at 8 pm.

The moving average of Covid deaths in 7 days in Brazil stood at 152, an increase of 8% compared to the level of 14 days earlier.

The moving average of new cases in seven days was 46,137, which represents an increase of 15% compared to the level of 14 days before.

The number of people fully immunized against Covid in Brazil reached 167,269,995, equivalent to 77.86% of the population.

The number of people who took at least the first dose of vaccines reached 179,006,286 people, which represents 83.33% of the population.

The booster dose was given to 100,053,155 people, or 46.57% of the population.

5. Corporate Radar

The State Public Ministry of Rio (MP-RJ) opened an investigation to investigate indications of administrative impropriety by Petrobras’ management (PETR4, PETR3) in fuel adjustments. The civil investigation was opened in November at the Attorney General’s Office in Rio, but was sent to the state agency on the 15th of this month.

The investigation integrates a series of actions by different bodies with the objective of tightening the siege against the state company. Another Petrobras investigation front is led by Cade, which has at least eleven cases directly or indirectly involving the company.

The state-owned company also confirmed the sale of its entire stake in the sets of maritime concessions called Polo Golfinho and Polo Camarupim, in the Espírito Santo Basin, to the company BW Energy Maromba do Brasil (BWE). The total value of the operation is up to US$ 75 million.

B3 (B3SA3) approved the payment of interest on equity (JCP) in the amount of R$360 million, equivalent to R$0.0606 per share and the distribution of R$413 million in dividends (R$0.0694 per share). action).

The credit will be made on July 8, 2022.

Renner Stores (LREN3)

Lojas Renner (LREN3) approved JCP in the amount of R$159 million, corresponding to R$0.164187 per share.

Payment will be made as of July 11 of this year, from the shareholding base on June 28, with shares being traded ex-JSCP on June 29.

The retailer also informed the end of the ON share buyback program, after acquiring 18 million shares, at an average price of R$ 25.20. Amount represents 1.82% of outstanding assets.

Sanepar (SAPR11) approved the distribution of R$154.2 million in interest on equity, equivalent to R$0.0957 per common share, R$0.1052 per preferred share and R$0.5166 per unit.

Payment will be made on a date to be defined, until April 2023. The shares will be traded ex as from July 1st.

(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)

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