Fixed income has increasingly attracted the attention of investors and, with the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), on Tuesday (21), its strategy of maintaining the basic interest rate was confirmed. interest rates (Selic) at a high level in an attempt to contain the soaring inflation.
Today, the Selic rate is at 13.25% per year, and the Copom indicated in the minutes that it “anticipates a new adjustment, of equal or lesser magnitude” for the August meeting. The last increase reached 0.50 percentage point. For experts heard by the UOL, fixed income continues to be a good bet for investors’ portfolios, not only because of the current level of the Selic rate, but also because of the unfavorable environment for variable income, shaken by the uncertainties of the international economy and in the domestic environment. Do I need to adjust the portfolio? What are the best options? See below.
“In the current scenario, there will be a strategic increase in the participation of fixed income investments in the portfolio, not only due to the lower risk compared to other assets, but due to greater profitability. With the rise in the Selic, fixed income assets become more attractive, and investors organically tend to seek greater exposure in this investment category, which is commonly recommended for all investor profiles”, says Ariane Benedito, economist at CM Capital.
Head of Fixed Income at Alta Vista Investimentos, Mateus Caldasso agrees with Ariane: “Increasing the share in the fixed income portfolio is always a prudent strategy that usually yields good results.”
In the assessment of Daniel Miraglia, chief economist at Integral Group, the Selic will still have two more highs, reaching 13.75% this year. As a result, most fixed income investments should continue to show good results.
Caldasso says that fixed income is usually the flagship in the assembly of any portfolio. For the conservative profile, the average share of total assets is up to 40%, decreasing to up to 30% in the moderate profile and reaching 20% in the bold profile. The term of investments in each fixed income asset class will depend on the index.
Fixed income is composed of several strategies, such as fixed-rate, floating-rate and inflation-linked. According to Caldasso, at the time of inflation and high Selic, the preference is for bonds linked to inflation and with shorter maturities. On the longer-term horizon, however, he says there could be a pullback in price increases.
What are the best options?
Among the fixed income options, the most conservative asset class is the one indexed to inflation, that is, to the IPCA, plus an interest rate.
Also according to the Alta Vista specialist, investments can be made through exempt securities, such as LCIs, LCAs and infrastructure debentures. Or even in taxed securities, such as government bonds, CDBs or other modalities, such as financial bills. There is also the alternative of the Direct Treasury, which allows very low value contributions, but there is the incidence of taxes and other costs.
According to the specialist at CM Capital, referenced securities, such as floating rate CDBs, are currently the best option, due to their flexibility in terms of validity and the high percentage of the CDI (investments that promise to pay the CDI plus a percentage).
This means, according to Ariane, that the market offers attractive short-term rates, which public bonds do not always offer. According to the economist, the trend is for the continuation of high interest rates in the long term, which makes the scenario advantageous for investors to invest in the long term in Selic-indexed papers.
For inflation bonds, according to the Alta Vista specialist, shorter maturities may be more recommended. In the medium and long term, bonds that have the possibility of liquidity in the secondary market may be more attractive. For example, infrastructure debentures or CDBs.
More important than the asset class, says Miraglia, is analyzing which index it is linked to. The main ones are fixed rate, which have better results when interest rates start to fall, investments indexed to CDI+ and CDI percentage.
LCI and LCA should have a smaller share in the portfolio and require caution, mainly because of the challenging scenario expected for the Brazilian economy, which could lead to an increase in indebtedness. Therefore, according to Miraglia, it is recommended to allocate these assets via investment funds from managers who have a deep knowledge of credit.
In the case of CDI+ and CDI percentage, the expectation is for a performance, looking at a period of six to 12 months. They are, according to the expert, the least risky in any scenario. They perform better when interest rates are high or when there is a risk of going higher.
Finally, the investor has the option of fixed income investments in IPCA+, indexed to inflation. They are recommended for investors to continue diversifying in this index, according to the chief economist at Integral Group.
“Portfolios that had greater exposure to assets abroad or on the stock exchange can make an adjustment to take advantage of the best risk-return ratio. It is worth remembering that investors must be careful with the term of fixed income. It is important to have liquidity to buy good assets with discounts when the scenario clears”, suggests Sandra Blanco, chief strategist at Órama.
In general, according to Órama’s chief strategist, all fixed income assets, including funds, are delivering good returns. Therefore, when choosing, the specialist suggests that investors pay attention to rates and maturity. It is also worth checking which classes are part of the Credit Guarantee Fund, which allows account holders and investors to recover credits from financial institutions in the event of bankruptcy, intervention or liquidation, within the defined limits.
And where to get the money?
Caldasso generally recommends reducing the position in macro hedge funds. Focused on various assets, such as foreign exchange and shares, these funds have as a strategy the analysis of macroeconomic scenarios and indicators.
The specialist also suggests a smaller portion of investments in shares, which have presented a poor performance on the Brazilian stock exchange and carry a high risk.
The economist at CM Capital also suggests that hedge funds, especially those with greater exposure to variable income, lose ground in future investments. “Uncertainties in the global economic environment generate instability in the stock market, impacting the results of multimarket funds and equity investment funds, which carry in their characteristics a greater volatility even in moments of calm”, she declares.
At the moment, completes Ariane, for those who have allocations in variable income, it is recommended to maintain a position so as not to make losses. In the case of new investments, he adds, fixed income is a great option to recompose the portfolio and reduce risk exposure.