Ibovespa closes the first trading session of the second half up 0.42%; dollar advances 1.65%

The Ibovespa closed up 0.42% this Friday (1), the first day of the second half of 2022, at 98,953 points. The main index of the Brazilian stock market spent part of the trading session down but, around 2 pm (Brasilia time), managed to turn to the positive field. In the accumulated of the week the high was of 0.28%.

To a large extent, the movement took place in parallel with what was seen in the United States. You benchmarks Americans managed to close higher after opening lower – Dow Jones rose 1.05%, S&P 500, 1.06% and Nasdaq, 0.90%.

“The world stock markets oscillated between losses and gains throughout the morning. In our opinion, today’s market movements are again explained by the fear of recession. We had PMI data in Europe and the US that were lower than expected, leading again to a more intense discussion about the slowdown in economic growth”, says Marcela Rocha, chief economist at Claritas.

Earlier, IHS Markit released June PMIs for countries across the Old Continent as well as the US, with all, without exception, bringing a slowdown on a monthly basis.

“A global recession can lead to a drop in commodities, which weighs on the yield curve and gives space for some assets”, explains Rocha. “The stock markets had a very negative month of June. There is the thought that the stock exchanges have already advanced the most worrying scenarios, as well as a perspective that if interest rates fall, with central banks not tightening so much, the stock market levels can be sustained”, he adds.

Economic slowdown reduces pressure on yield curve

In the US, signs of an economic slowdown led to treasury yield of ten years to fall 8.5 basis points, to 2.889%, a level far from the almost 3.50% seen about 15 days ago. This also helped to bring down the Brazilian interest rate curve, despite the fiscal risks imposed by the PEC on aid, approved in the Senate yesterday and which now goes to the Chamber of Deputies.

For Gustavo Cruz, strategist at RB Investimentos, the Brazilian interest rate curve is still benefiting from the fact that the ICMS is being cut by governors, which should have an impact on inflation.

The DIs for 2023 had their yield retreating six points, to 13.70%, and those for 2025, nine points, to 12.66%. The DI for 2027 saw its rate drop three points to 12.62%. The contracts for 2029 and 2031, finally, register drops of three and four points in their yields, to 12.76% and 12.82%.

“At the same time, however, the fiscal threat devalues ​​our real. As much as it is said that the aid will remain until the end of the year, we know that this is very difficult”, says Cruz. “Most likely we will have pressure to renew these benefits.”

The commercial dollar closed up 1.65%, at R$ 5.321 in the purchase and sale. In addition to fiscal pressures, Claritas’ chief economist also points out that the prospect of recession increases risk aversion – the DXY, an index that measures the strength of the dollar against other currencies in the world, advanced 0.41%. In the week, the high was 1.66%.

ICMS drop pulls some Ibovespa shares

Among the biggest rises on the Ibovespa were shares of companies in essential sectors, such as the common stocks of CPFL (CPFE3), with 3.92% more, Tim (TIMS3), with 3.37% more, and Vivo (VIVT3) , with 2.29% more.

“The drop in the ICMS sector benefits the telephone sector and others considered essential”, comments the strategist at RB Investimentos.

Nicolas Merola, investment analyst at Inv, highlights the fall in commodities. “It was a sector that was managing to resist macroeconomic problems, but which is now falling sharply, with the exception of oil”, he explains. “The CRB Index fell again, at the same level of consolidation that it was at the beginning of the year”.

Also among the biggest increases on the Ibovespa were the protein sector papers – the common shares of BRF (BRFS3) and Marfrig (MRFG3) rose, respectively, 4.93% and 3.72%. The fall in the price of grains, as well as the retreat of the real, tends to increase the margin of these companies.

Finally, the highlight among the increases was MRV (MRVE3), whose ON shares advanced 5.25% after the company announced the sale of a credit portfolio valued at R$349.4 million.

On the other hand, among the biggest falls, the highlights were Light (LIGT3), with minus 6.57%, Magazine Luiza (MGLU3), with minus 5.98%, and Cogna (COGN3), with minus 3 .74%.

“It is even difficult to explain the fall of these companies due to the decline in the yield curve. It may be associated with the publication of data from Boa Vista, which showed that the demand for credit has decreased considerably, which can impact these companies”, says Cruz.

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