Soybean: Prices improve in BR with Chicago and dollar highs and business…

The soybean market closed the second consecutive session of the week higher on the Chicago Stock Exchange, reflecting an improvement in the fundamental and financial scenarios, rising more than 2% throughout the day, to end Tuesday (28) in the field. positive, with increases of 25.50 to 36.75 points in the main maturities. Thus, August ends the day at US$ 15.55 and November – which is the most traded at the moment – at US$ 14.61 per bushel.

Among derivatives, the increases were also strong and exceeded 1%, both for oil and for soybean meal. Corn and wheat also rose. Tuesday (28) is a general high for commodities, and part of the support comes from oil gains. The gains, in WTI alone, were more than 2%, taking the barrel to more than US$ 111.00.

On the one hand, the fundamentals and monitoring of the climate and the development of the North American crop. Yesterday, the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) again reduced the quality of soybean, corn and wheat crops in the country. At the other end, climate maps signal better conditions for the Corn Belt in the coming days.

“Corn and soybean futures are supported by the fall in crop conditions. Crops felt the high temperatures. And the models show more heat and more rains for the next 10 days”, says market analyst Eduardo Vanin, from Agrinvest Commodities.

Updated maps from NOAA, the official weather service for the United States, show that the next 6-10 days – July 4-8 – will see above-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, as the following images illustrate.

WhatsApp Image 2022-06-28 at 11.16.00
Rain forecast for July 4th to 8th – Map: NOAA
WhatsApp Image 2022-06-28 at 10.16.34
Temperature forecast for July 4th to 8th – Map: NOAA

For market consultant Vlamir Brandalizze, from Brandalizze Consulting, the price range that should be practiced for new American crop contracts should be from US$ 14.50 to US$ 15.50 per bushel. “If up front it manages to exceed US$ 15.00, it will already be interesting for the producer, because August is the peak of the off-season, it is the end of the American crop cycle. So, normally, it has a much better value than the position up ahead, November”, he explains.

Also according to Vanin, the good news coming from China also contributes to the advance of prices, including the improvement in crushing and swine production margins.

“China’s margins have improved. Strong rise on the Dalian Exchange for bran and oil futures, and live hog continues to rise strong. China has well covered its need for soybeans for the July to late October window”, he detailed. Vanin.

In addition to this scenario, the grain futures market in Chicago is also preparing to receive the new quarterly crop area bulletin and the quarterly US grain inventory bulletin on June 1st.

BRAZILIAN MARKET

The Brandalizze consultant also recalls that the current moment is decisive and also important for the formation of input prices and production costs by Brazilian producers, especially with the high of the dollar against the real.

“People from the countryside have already pointed out to me that fertilizers have gone up again, and the exchange ratio may get tighter in the future. So, it shouldn’t be left to the last minute. We have the advantage of being served by Russia at the same time that they are serving few countries and to other sides”, he explains.

The formation of soybean prices here in the domestic market remains more limited, however, finding room for a breather this week with highs not only in Chicago, but also in the dollar against the real.

“Today the port market has improved compared to yesterday. R$ 194.00 in July, R$ 195.00 at the end of July/beginning of August, R$ 196.00 for August with September and R$ 197.00 for September And that delivery operation now, payment in January, well worked out, is able to pay the R$ 200.00 and this is the best position we have in the ports now”, says the consultant.

Also according to Brandalizze, the references in the interior of the country have improved from R$ 1.00 to R$ 2.00 per bag, and may improve a little more this Wednesday.

And little by little, business is starting to flow again, including new sales of new crop soybeans, which were more contained in recent weeks, with chances of prices ranging from R$ 183.00 to R$ 185.00 per bag at the ports.

“The producer has to start keeping an eye on this because when the port reaches R$ 190.00, if he has the opportunity, they are already good positions to at least make an average. For the time being, the American climate is not as favorable as if he explained, but if it rains in the next few days, the whole situation changes. There are three weeks of falling quality. If it rains, the market begins to balance the situation of the crops and returns those points that it won”, says the specialist.