The most recommended stocks by analysts to buy in June; BTG joins the list and Arezzo leaves

After much volatility, the Ibovespa ended May in positive territory – up 3.2% to 111,351 points – recovering from the 10% drop in the previous month. It was the fourth monthly increase this year, indicating a gain of 6.2% in the five-month period, according to Economatica data.

Amidst the global turmoil brought on by a tighter scenario for economic growth and inflationary pressures, with an environment of higher rates, there was little change in the list of the most recommended stocks by analysts for June, compared to last month.

Vale (VALE3) remains in the lead, with seven investment indications, followed by Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) and Multiplan (MULT3), both with five. The latter, however, rose to vice-leadership after two debuts – in the portfolios of Ativa and BB Investimentos – and one exclusion, by the brokerage Elite.

The novelty of the month is the entry of the units of the BTG Pactual bank (BPAC11) in the list of highlights. The papers received four nominations, the same amount from Banco do Brasil (BBAS3), Petrobras (PETR4) and Suzano (SUZB3), which remained among the most indicated.

With two replacements this month, Arezzo (ARZZ3) is no longer among the analysts’ favorites.

For the coming months, BB Investimentos states in a report that the situation for the Stock Exchange is in line with the house’s assessment of the balance sheet season in the first quarter: from neutral to positive.

According to the institution, commodities in general continue to benefit from difficulties in supply chains, which affect supply, and from the recovery in demand. As for domestic assets, BB states that the inflection point will be the end of the cycle of high interest rates – which it believes is close – combined with effective signs of a decline in inflation.

The broker expects the Ibovespa to end the year at 132,000 points, just above XP’s projection of 130,000 points.

O InfoMoney analyzes every month the recommended stock portfolios of ten brokers, pointing out the five companies most cited by analysts. The number can be higher, if there is a tie – as happened this time, as well as in May.

See below the seven most indicated stocks for June, the number of recommendations and the performance of each stock in the accumulated of May, in 2022 and in 12 months:

Sources: Ágora, Ativa, BB Investimentos, BTG Pactual, Elite, Genial, Guide, Órama, Santander Corretora, XP Investimentos and economics

Check now the highlights of each of the companies selected for this month, according to reports released by brokerages.

The mining giant continues to be the analysts’ favorite, present in seven of the ten selected portfolios. The company lost an indication in relation to May, as it was replaced in the portfolio of Guide Investimentos.

Ágora Investimentos was one of the brokerages that maintained the purchase indication for Vale – despite having reduced the estimated target price for the company’s shares, from R$135 to R$117. According to a monthly report, analysts remain “tactically positive”. in relation to papers.

According to them, iron ore prices have remained resilient this year, reflecting lower supply, dwindling raw material inventories and solid Chinese steel production – which, in the opinion of experts, has not deteriorated significantly, even with the movement restrictions related to Covid-19.

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In addition, the institution believes that the recovery in steel demand in the third quarter and the expectation of better profitability for steelmakers should give some support to iron ore prices. With this, Ágora projects the average price of the product at US$ 140 per ton this year, compared to a previous forecast of R$ 130 per ton. In 2023, this average should drop to US$ 110, due to the increase in supply, predicts the brokerage.

“The above-average iron ore price environment should continue to support healthy cash generation [da Vale] of US$16 billion and US$12 billion in 2022 and 2023, respectively, translating into strong shareholder remuneration of 22% (between dividends and share buybacks)”, say the experts at Ágora.

Multiplan (MULT3)

With five recommendations, Multiplan shares second place in the month with Itaú Unibanco. The company’s shares are among the novelties chosen by BB Investimentos for June.

In its analysis, the broker highlights the company’s results in the first quarter that, in the opinion of experts, show the ability to deliver growth and profitability, even in the face of high inflation, which puts pressure on the population’s income.

In the aforementioned period, Multiplan recorded a net income of R$171.5 million, up 270.5% over the same period in 2021. Net revenue grew 58%, to R$420 million.

In BB’s opinion, the gain is a reflection of the differentiated portfolio that the company has built over the decades. One of the largest mall managers in Brazil, Multiplan owns projects such as Morumbi, Vila Olímpia and Anália Franco, in São Paulo; and BarraShopping and VillageMall, in Rio.

Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4)

The bank remains with four investment indications, among them that of Ativa – which remains optimistic about the paper, despite the increase in default.

“We like the case of Itaú, owner of the second largest credit portfolio in the country, greater financial margin and one of the largest ROEs [retorno sobre o patrimônio líquido] among their peers”, says the institution.

According to Ativa, despite the challenges that traditional banks will face in the coming years with the modernization and increase of competitiveness in the financial system, Itaú has good credit assets and an administration that is attentive to these issues.

The brokerage projects an advance of between 9% and 12% in the bank’s loan portfolio in 2022, which, combined with greater gains from rising interest rates (spreads banking), will allow the financial margin to continue rising in the coming years.

Even with a higher cost of credit, due to the increase in delinquency, Ativa expects Itaú to deliver an ROE of approximately 20% this year.

BTG Pactual (BPAC11)

The BTG Pactual units received four nominations and appear as a novelty in the list of the most recommended assets of the month. The entry of the bank’s shares was the only change promoted by Ágora in the review of its portfolio.

The brokerage points out that it recently raised its net income projections for BTG Pactual this year, in 2023 and in 2024, due to the better-than-expected performance in the first quarter. The new calculations point to a growth in results of 25.9%, 11.3% and 11%, respectively.

As a result, the broker increased the estimated target price for the bank’s units, from R$31 to R$33.

“We maintain our buy recommendation, supported by higher earnings growth, resilience to business diversification and a valuation attractive in relative terms,” says the Agora report.

Petrobras (PETR4)

Another paper to receive four nominations for June was that of Petrobras. XP Investimentos says it maintains the perception that the oil company’s shares are too cheap to ignore, but warns of political risks.

The brokerage cited the recent resignation of CEO José Mauro Coelho, with less than two months in office, as well as criticism by President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) of employees who have been at the state-owned company for more than six months.

“Although we see both news as negative, we do not believe that there will be a change in Petrobras’ fuel pricing policy,” says the report signed by Fernando Ferreira, Jennie Li and Rebecca Nossig, from XP.

They claim that even in a “most stressed scenario” – which includes a 15% discount on international parity prices for oil products – they estimate a fair price of BRL 47.80 for the company’s shares, showing that “much of a potential downside scenario is already built into current prices”.

XP’s projection equates to a 59% upside potential for the company’s preferred shares (PETR4), based on the May 31 close.

Bank of Brazil (BBAS3)

The financial institution kept the four nominations it had received last month. Recently, Ágora raised its recommendation for Banco do Brasil from neutral to buy, given the positive outlook presented in the balance sheet for the first three months of the year.

In the broker’s assessment, BB should sustain a low risk cost, due to its more defensive credit portfolio, which has less exposure to individual customers compared to its peers.

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In addition, Agora experts believe the financial intermediation outcome is expected to improve with higher interest rates, leading to a faster expansion of earnings in 2022 and 2023.

As a result, analysts raised, on average, 12% of their projections for BB’s net income over the next two years. The estimated target price for the bank’s securities increased by 13% to R$45.

Closing the list of the most recommended are Suzano’s shares, with four citations.

Ativa says it maintains a positive view of the company’s current situation, despite the fact that the results for the first quarter were below the institution’s expectations, due to maintenance stoppages in important manufacturing units (which reduced volumes sold) and pressure from costs incurred with the increase in the prices of chemical inputs, fuel and inflation.

According to analysts at the house, even with several obstacles, Suzano has been able to implement price pass-throughs in all markets where it operates, a scenario that should continue for the next quarters, due to current conditions that compress the global supply of pulp.

In a report, Santander Corretora, which also indicates Suzano’s shares, highlights that hardwood pulp prices in China surpassed the level of US$ 800 a ton at the end of May, according to the FOEX index, with the potential to surpass the mark of US$ 850 a ton in the coming months.

“A possible impact of China’s ‘zero Covid’ policy remains one of the main concerns of investors, but we see demand for pulp at healthy levels in all regions”, says the institution. “Furthermore, we continue to expect Chinese demand to improve between May and June.”

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