Treasury Direct: rates operate mixed with global risk aversion and oil

Public bond rates operate in mixed movement this Thursday afternoon (12). Fixed rate bonds have higher returns, while inflation-linked rates decline.

According to Flavio Serrano, chief economist at Greenbay Investimentos, the day was marked by an upward movement in interest rates, driven by investors’ risk aversion. He explains that there is a greater fear regarding a stronger slowdown in the global economy.

He cites that this aversion ended up putting pressure on interest rates, which rose for much of the day. Another reason that pulled the curve was the rise in oil prices.

“The lag of gasoline prices with the international market is already above 20%”, points out Serrano. For the economist, this also has an impact on interest rates, because of an expectation of a gasoline readjustment in the short term that contributes to inflation.

On the investors’ radar and which may impact the next sessions, Serrano highlights the price of commodities.

Within Treasury Direct, the biggest increase was in long-term fixed-rate securities. The 2033 Fixed Rate Treasury, with semi-annual interest, offered an annual return of 12.71%, higher than the 12.66% seen yesterday.

The Fixed Rate Treasury 2025 and the Fixed Rate Treasury 2029 both had an annual return of 12.56%, up from the 12.52% and 12.54% recorded on Wednesday (11).

On the other hand, in inflation-linked bonds, the movement was one of falling rates.

Most government bonds registered a 4 basis point drop in rates. Only the IPCA+ 2040 Treasury rate, with semiannual interest, dropped 3 basis points.

At 3:28 pm, the public bond offered a real return of 5.77%, lower than the 5.80% seen yesterday.

The IPCA+ 2055 Treasury continues with the negotiations suspended because it will pay semi-annual interest next Monday (16).

Check out the prices and rates of all public securities available for purchase at Treasury Direct that were offered this Thursday afternoon (12):


Services data is in the market’s focus this Thursday. The volume of the sector rose 1.7% in March, in the monthly comparison. Compared to March last year, services advanced 11.4%. In the year, the increase is 9.4%

The numbers beat the Refinitiv consensus estimates, which were up 0.7% monthly and 8.5% year-on-year.

With today’s results, the sector has recovered the 1.8% loss from January and is now 7.2% above the pre-pandemic level.

On a monthly basis, the positive result was disseminated by all five activities investigated by the survey, especially transport (2.7%), which increased for the fifth consecutive month.

“Among the sectors that most influenced the rise in this activity is the road freight, especially that linked to electronic commerce and agribusiness. It is the main mode of cargo transport in Brazilian cities and its use has become even more pronounced after the most crucial months of the pandemic”, explains Rodrigo Lobo, research manager.

Food imports, new minister and tax reform

Meanwhile, on the political scene, the federal government announced yesterday (11) that it will zero the import tax rate for seven categories of food products. The decision was taken by the Executive Management Committee of the Foreign Trade Chamber (Gecex/Camex), of the Ministry of Economy.

Meat, wheat and wheat flour, corn grains, cookies and other baked goods are among the items affected by the decision. In a press conference to detail the measures, Marcelo Guaranys, executive secretary of the portfolio, said that the objective of the measure is to contain the advance of inflation in the country and make businessmen think twice before raising prices.

Also noteworthy was the approval yesterday (11) by the Chamber of an additional payment for on-call to federal police officers. The provisional measure (MP) is now being analyzed by the Federal Senate, which must approve it by May 25.

The text makes it possible to use the resources of the Fund for the Equipment and Operation of the Federal Police’s core activities (Funapol) to finance health insurance and the payment of compensation for time of availability.

After a week of backstage discussions about tax reform, findings from the Reuters point out that the matter shows no signs of moving, for now, in the Senate, even though the president of the House, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), intends to vote on it this semester.

Sources consulted by the agency said that the two main senators involved in the progress of the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) that deals with the matter – the rapporteur, Roberto Rocha (PTB-MA), and Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), president of the of Constitution and Justice (CCJ), where the measure is currently being processed – should not resume the discussion for the time being.

In his first speech as Minister of Mines and Energy, Adolfo Sachsida said on Wednesday that he requested studies from the federal government for the privatization of Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) and Pre-Salt Petróleo (PPSA), responsible for the pre-salt Union contracts . An ally of the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, the economist also defended the continuation of the sale of Eletrobras, which depends on the approval of the Federal Audit Court (TCU).

Also pay attention to some more stoppage signals. Autonomous truck drivers from Espírito Santo announced yesterday (11) that they will go on strike — the movement should start from midnight today, according to a statement from the category.

external scenario

On the foreign scene, the highlight is the US producer price index (PPI), which rose 0.5% in April compared to March, according to seasonally adjusted data published this Thursday by the Labor Department. from the country.

The result was in line with the expectations of analysts consulted by the The Wall Street Journal. The core PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose 0.6% month-on-month in April, also following the market forecast.

In the annual comparison, the PPI jumped 11.0% in April, decelerating from the annual increase of 11.5% in the previous month, and the core index rose by 6.9%. The Labor Department also revised up the monthly PPI for March, from a 1.4% gain to a 1.6% increase.

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