US futures indexes see slight losses, while European markets operate without a defined direction on Friday morning (3), with investors focusing attention on more jobs data. The Refinitiv consensus points to the creation of 325,000 jobs in the month of May.
While the pace of job growth is expected to have slowed for May, economists say the job market remains strong even as parts of the economy weaken.
Investors are also awaiting new data from the Markit and ISM purchasing managers’ index, which will be released in the morning.
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard sees a favorable scenario for a pause in interest rate hikes in September as difficult and that the 50 basis point hikes in June and July still look reasonable.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed on Thursday to increase output in July and August by a higher-than-expected amount as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rocks global energy markets.
In Asia, markets ended the last trading session of the week on the positive side, with several major regional markets closed for a holiday.
Here, after the 1% growth of GDP in the first quarter, industrial production for April (9 am), with an estimate of slight deceleration.
In the corporate field, the reserve period for investors in the Eletrobras share offering begins on Friday (3rd). The operation could move up to R$35 billion and the government could result in a dilution of the government’s capital in the company, to less than 50%. The share price will be fixed the following week, on June 9th. The Council of the Investment Partnerships Program (CPPI) approved in the fifth resolution that recommends the edition of a decree by President Jair Bolsonaro to allow the beginning of studies on the privatization of Petrobras.
The inspector is also on the radar. According to information from Folha, members of the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government are evaluating the possibility of approving a PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) to pave the way for measures to combat the rise in fuel prices. The strategy is one of the options that are on the table to be activated in an attempt to lower prices. It would be an alternative to the public calamity decree, which was once again defended by the political wing of the government, but faced resistance from technicians in the economic area.
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1. World Scholarships
After rising sharply the day before, U.S. futures operate slightly lower this Friday morning, ahead of the May payroll release, which is expected to show the smallest job gain since April 2021, along with a drop in average growth. of earnings per hour.
See the performance of futures markets:
- Dow Jones Future (USA), -0.19%
- S&P 500 Futures (US), -0.27%
- Nasdaq Future (USA), -0.45%
Asian markets closed higher in the last session of the week, with several major markets in the region closed for a holiday and investors awaiting the release of US jobs data for May.
Japanese stocks led gains among major markets in the region, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 1.27% on the day to 27,761.57.
- Shanghai SE (China), closed for public holidays
- Nikkei (Japan), +1.27%
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), closed for public holidays
- Kospi (South Korea), +0.44%
European markets operate with slight gains for the most part, with traders focused on US jobs data to be released today (3).
Investors are still digesting the eurozone inflation figures, which hit 8.1% in May, beating expectations and marking a seventh straight record. Investors are closely following the European Central Bank (ECB) for signs on the pace and scale of interest rate hikes needed to contain consumer prices.
The war in Ukraine also remains in the spotlight, as does the EU’s recent announcement of a partial ban on Russian oil imports.
- FTSE 100 (UK), closed for public holidays
- DAX (Germany), +0.33%
- CAC 40 (France), +0.25%
- FTSE MIB (Italy), -0.21%
Oil prices fall after rising the day before, amid doubts that OPEC+ producers can increase their oil production enough to make up for the loss of supply from Russia.
- WTI crude, -0.75% at $115.99 a barrel
- Brent crude, -0.62% at $116.88 a barrel
- Iron ore traded on the Dalian Exchange rose 3.77% to 935.50 yuan, equivalent to US$140.47
- Bitcoin, +1.56% to $30,420.79 (from 24 hours ago)
In the United States, the payroll, the official data of the American labor market, is released. The Refinitiv consensus predicts the creation of 320,000 jobs in the United States (compared to 428,000 in April) and the unemployment rate to fall from 3.6% to 3.5%.
“The disclosure of these indicators becomes even more relevant after the Fed has conditioned its monetary policy decisions to the performance of current data”, says an analysis by Bradesco.
Here, industrial production for April comes out, with the expectation of a slight increase compared to March.
9:00 am: April industrial production, Refinitiv consensus is up 0.1% from March and down 0.8% year-on-year
9:00 am: XP/Ipespe electoral poll
9:45 am: Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, has a virtual meeting with the Minister of Finance of India, Nirmala Sitharaman
10am: May Services PMI
10 am: Guedes has an audience with the Chancellor of Malta, Ian Borg
10:30 am: Guedes meets with the head of the Special Communications Office, Luisa Medeiros
12:00: Guedes has a meeting with the Executive Secretary, Marcelo Guaranys
1 pm: Guedes has lunch with members of the Industry Coalition
15:00: Guedes meets with the Special Secretary for Foreign Trade and International Affairs, Roberto Fendt
4:00 pm: Roberto Campos Neto, president of BC, meets, by videoconference, with representatives of Millennium Capital Partners LLP
9:30 am: May payroll employment report, Refinitiv consensus points to 325,000 job creation
9:30 am: May unemployment rate, with Refinitiv projection of 3.5%
10:45 am: PMI
11am: Service ISM
11 am: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard
2pm: Baker Hughes probe count
3. Limit to ICMS on fuel
Senator Fernando Bezerra (MDB-PE) had another round of conversations yesterday with representatives of the State Finance Secretaries about the possibility of limiting the application of the Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) on goods and services related to fuels, natural gas, electricity, communications and public transport.
Bezerra is the rapporteur of the Complementary Law Project (PLP) 18/2022, which deals with this topic and was approved in the Chamber. One of the consensuses that emerged from the meeting was the possibility of voting on the project before the 14th.
Government evaluates PEC to subsidize fuels as an alternative to public calamity
Members of the Bolsonaro government are evaluating the possibility of approving the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) to subsidize fuel prices, Folha learned. The strategy is one of the options that are on the table to be activated in an attempt to lower prices. It would be an alternative to the public calamity decree, which was once again defended by the political wing of the government, but faces resistance from the economic area.
PPI Board approves including Petrobras in studies for privatization
The Council of the Investment Partnerships Program (CPPI) approved on Thursday (2) a resolution that recommends the edition of a decree by President Jair Bolsonaro to allow the beginning of studies on the privatization of Petrobras.
The official inclusion of Petrobras in the PPI can only be done after the decree. An inter-ministerial committee, made up of the Ministries of Economy and of Mines and Energy, will be in charge of studies, both on the privatization of Petrobras and on the sale of contracts with PPSA, the state-owned company that manages the commercialization of oil extracted from the pre-salt layer.
According to the special secretary of the PPI, Bruno Westin Leal, the approved recommendation does not mean the inclusion of Petrobras in the National Privatization Plan (PND). This is because the oil company’s entry into the PND requires approval of a bill or provisional measure by the National Congress.
Last Thursday (2), Brazil recorded 130 deaths and 41,714 cases of covid-19 in 24 hours, according to information from the consortium of press vehicles, at 8 pm.
The moving average of Covid deaths in 7 days in Brazil stood at 104, down 5% compared to the level of 14 days earlier.
The moving average of new cases in seven days was 32,983, which represents an increase of 138% in relation to the level of 14 days before.
The number of people fully immunized against Covid in Brazil reached 166,261,712, equivalent to 77.96% of the population.
The number of people who took at least the first dose of vaccines reached 178,545,796 people, which represents 83.11% of the population.
The booster dose was given to 93,281,363 people, or 43.42% of the population.
5. Corporate Radar
This Friday (3), the reserve period for investors in the Eletrobras share offering begins. The operation could move up to R$35 billion and the government could result in a dilution of the government’s capital in the company, to less than 50%. The share price will be fixed the following week, on June 9th.
The state-owned company also informed that its subsidiary, Furnas, paid up 5.4 billion common shares, in the amount of R$ 681 million.
Camil (CAML3) reported that the gross unit value per common share was adjusted from R$0.069680254 to R$0.069719118.
All shareholders holding common shares of
issuance of the company at the close of business on B3, on June 1, 2022.
JCP will be paid on June 10, 2022.
(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)